Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Primary Day and Reflections

(Andrew C. Bome is heading home today.  Here are some of his observations from yesterday and reflections on what last night's results may mean for the US Presidential race.)

Tuesday morning was the day of the primary.  Our only real plans were to check out some polling places to see some candidates; we hadn’t seen either Ben Carson or John Kasich and had to check them off our list.  Ben Carson was having an event at a diner; we went, had breakfast and saw the back of Ben Carson’s head.  He teleported out of the diner before I was able to take his picture; at least breakfast was nice.  We did manage to get to a polling place where Kasich was still speaking to the media; it included someone from the Russian media.

Nuggets of Wisdom for Denmark

The evening was taken up by the Clinton victory party.  The doors opened after we got their, so we ended up in a queue in the cold.  I overheard someone at the lineup saying that she hadn’t volunteered yet for Hillary; I am thinking she is a little late.

Hillary Concedes
We were able to manage to get seats in the bleachers with a good view of the podium; being middle aged I prefer sitting to standing. 

Sadly, there was no wifi at the auditorium, the phone coverage was terrible and no-one at the event set up a television to broadcast the result.    Effectively during the first hour after the polls closed Alan and I were effectively in radio silence.    Someone nearby was able to connect to the outside world, so we knew that Hillary had lost on Democratic side and that Trump won on the Republican side.  Neither of the results was surprising, but many, myself included, wanted something different.

The concession speech was good.  She was defiant and she promised to continue on; she said she was knocked down, but she will get up again (but she never said anything about being left down).  The audience was excited and cheering her on.  The next stop for Hillary is Nevada and South Carolina; she has to win those.

On the way out, we got an illustration of how much media there is in New Hampshire during primary time.  Some roving reporter with a camera got an interview with Alan; he was from Danish television.   I’m guessing that Danes will be getting some nuggets of wisdom about New Hampshire from some random Canadian dude.

What it all Means

The results were interesting.  Trump won and won big; that size of his win was a bit of a surprise.  Kashich’s second place wasn’t surprising; he did well in the debate and had been covering the state a lot.  Rubio’s bad debate performance mattered; he came in 5th place right below Bush.   Cruz eked out third place.  Christie came in 6th; he destroyed Marco Rubio in the debate, but it did not help him.  He says he is going to South Carolina today, but if his flight connects through Newark, he might deplane.
Bernie at a Campaign  Event on the Weekend

The Democratic results were a bit of a shock.  Bernie was always going to win, but the polls were narrowing.  But the actual results had Bernie 22% ahead of Hillary.  No amount of spin can make that result look good.  I still think that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States; I am just less sure of that now than I was yesterday.   On the Republican side we know that Christie is going home; news is that he is stopping in New Jersey.  Fiorina and Carson may claim that they are continuing; they won’t be getting any coverage, won’t be getting debate spots and won’t be able to raise any more money.  Rubio is in deep trouble; he will not be able to fund raise off his New Hampshire result and for people not named Trump, campaigns run on other people’s money.  Kasich is out of money, but his result will let him raise lots to let him continue.  As for Cruz, 3rd is a great result; he wasn’t expecting to do well and came out in a respectable 3rd place.  His campaign may have legs in the south.   Bush has money and he did somewhat better than expected.  Given that Graham has endorsed him, my guess is that his plan is to put lots of resources in South Carolina and that his plan depends on him winning there.  If Bush does, he will be the candidate; if Bush doesn’t, I have no clue what will happen.

We leave today to head back home.  Both Alan and I had fun, and we may do it again in 4 years.

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