Primary Day and Reflections

(Andrew C. Bome is heading home today.  Here are some of his observations from yesterday and reflections on what last night's results may mean for the US Presidential race.)

Tuesday morning was the day of the primary.  Our only real plans were to check out some polling places to see some candidates; we hadn’t seen either Ben Carson or John Kasich and had to check them off our list.  Ben Carson was having an event at a diner; we went, had breakfast and saw the back of Ben Carson’s head.  He teleported out of the diner before I was able to take his picture; at least breakfast was nice.  We did manage to get to a polling place where Kasich was still speaking to the media; it included someone from the Russian media.

Nuggets of Wisdom for Denmark

The evening was taken up by the Clinton victory party.  The doors opened after we got their, so we ended up in a queue in the cold.  I overheard someone at the lineup saying that she hadn’t volunteered yet for Hillary; I am thinking she is a little late.

Hillary Concedes

We were able to manage to get seats in the bleachers with a good view of the podium; being middle aged I prefer sitting to standing. 

Sadly, there was no wifi at the auditorium, the phone coverage was terrible and no-one at the event set up a television to broadcast the result.    Effectively during the first hour after the polls closed Alan and I were effectively in radio silence.    Someone nearby was able to connect to the outside world, so we knew that Hillary had lost on Democratic side and that Trump won on the Republican side.  Neither of the results was surprising, but many, myself included, wanted something different.

The concession speech was good.  She was defiant and she promised to continue on; she said she was knocked down, but she will get up again (but she never said anything about being left down).  The audience was excited and cheering her on.  The next stop for Hillary is Nevada and South Carolina; she has to win those.

On the way out, we got an illustration of how much media there is in New Hampshire during primary time.  Some roving reporter with a camera got an interview with Alan; he was from Danish television.   I’m guessing that Danes will be getting some nuggets of wisdom about New Hampshire from some random Canadian dude.

What it all Means

The results were interesting.  Trump won and won big; that size of his win was a bit of a surprise.  Kashich’s second place wasn’t surprising; he did well in the debate and had been covering the state a lot.  Rubio’s bad debate performance mattered; he came in 5^th place right below Bush.   Cruz eked out third place.  Christie came in 6^th; he destroyed Marco Rubio in the debate, but it did not help him.  He says he is going to South Carolina today, but if his flight connects through Newark, he might deplane.

Bernie at a Campaign  Event on the Weekend

The Democratic results were a bit of a shock.  Bernie was always going to win, but the polls were narrowing.  But the actual results had Bernie 22% ahead of Hillary.  No amount of spin can make that result look good.  I still think that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States; I am just less sure of that now than I was yesterday.   On the Republican side we know that Christie is going home; news is that he is stopping in New Jersey.  Fiorina and Carson may claim that they are continuing; they won’t be getting any coverage, won’t be getting debate spots and won’t be able to raise any more money.  Rubio is in deep trouble; he will not be able to fund raise off his New Hampshire result and for people not named Trump, campaigns run on other people’s money.  Kasich is out of money, but his result will let him raise lots to let him continue.  As for Cruz, 3^rd is a great result; he wasn’t expecting to do well and came out in a respectable 3^rd place.  His campaign may have legs in the south.   Bush has money and he did somewhat better than expected.  Given that Graham has endorsed him, my guess is that his plan is to put lots of resources in South Carolina and that his plan depends on him winning there.  If Bush does, he will be the candidate; if Bush doesn’t, I have no clue what will happen.

We leave today to head back home.  Both Alan and I had fun, and we may do it again in 4 years.

New Hampshire Day 2 p.m. – Hanging with Vermin

(Andrew C. Bome reports on Saturday evening activities in New Hampshire.)

Saturday night was debate night for the Republicans.  The debate was hosted by ABC and was being held at St Anselm’s College.  Not being big ticket Republican donors, we couldn’t get inside to see the main event.  Instead we headed over to the barricaded area where the demonstrators got to hang out; this was the free speech zone.
 
The free speech zone in 2008 was the highlight of the trip.  We got to hang out with some Fred Thompson supporters and had a good time listening to them froth.  This time, it was a little more subdued.
 
There were interesting things happening to be sure.  First, the main demonstration was the demonstrators demanding a $15.00 per hour minimum wage.   There were trade union types (UAW and SEIU were the two most visible ones) and lots of young protesters singing and chanting.  We also saw a few other protesters.  There was one guy who was waving a sign saying “no to Royalty”; that is a political manifesto that I can stand behind.  His rant was about the Clinton’s and the Bushes being serious candidates for president; he thinks it is all a little too dynastic.   
 

Andrew with Vermin Supreme

I also achieved my goal of having a selfie taken with a candidate; I did it, but the candidate was Vermin Supreme.  While he sounds like the worst menu item at a taco bell, Vermin is a guy who always pays his $100.00 to get on the ballot in New Hampshire.  Like Clinton, he was on the ballot in 2008 and he is on the ballot in 2016; unlike Clinton, he was on the ballot here in 2012 as well, and God willing he will be on the ballot in 2020.  He is very visible because he wears a boot on his head; his platform includes free ponies for everyone.  When we left the free speech zone (along with others) he berated us and called us cowards; I am not sure how I feel about being called a chicken by a guy with a boot on his head.

The real Republicans that were in the free speech zone weren’t so captivating.  Proving the point that a candidates supporters are not necessarily like the candidate, the Chris Christie supporters were cowering in a corner of the zone.  The $15.00 per hour demonstrators seemed to frighten them.   Ted Cruz had a few supporters here; with one notable exception, he seemed to attract only ugly people.  Maybe extremism only attracts ugly people; that has been my experience with left wing extremism and this appears to hold for right wing extremism as well.

 
We spent most of the time talking to Kasich supporters.  Alan decided to ask about the proper pronunciation of his name; it turns out it is a hard “ch” not soft.  They were mostly nice people, but they looked like a crew of accountants trying to run a demonstration; it looked off, and was very low key.  They did have some naughty things to say of others.   They told us it wouldn’t be a good idea to talk to Trump supporters; they might charge.    They also made cracks aimed at the $15.00 an hour demonstrators like “they haven’t figured out the Soviet Union has fallen.”
 

Super PAC Sponsored Snacks

That may be the case, but those demonstrators should put the fear of God into conservative politicians.  $15.00 per hour is a fairly standard progressive policy prescription.  The supporters of this had the energy and had the people.   The Republicans had neither.  The Republican demonstrators were as lifeless as their campaign.  They may think they have the upper hand.  The future belongs to progressive politics.
 
After this, we decided to go to the Ben Carson debate watching party.  It was held at a restaurant called Verandah grill.  The food was good (chicken fingers and nachos) and was on the Ben Carson campaign; mmmmm Carson super PAC sponsored snacks.  

The people we talked to were very nice, but they mostly left us alone; except for the one guy who wanted us to volunteer for the Carson Campaign.  The best part of the debate was watching Chris Christie pound on Marco Rubio; I loved watching Rubio not have anything to say, repeat his talking points, and then get slammed by Christie.  Apparently I was not alone in enjoying this.  Rubio also has Dumbo ears; once you notice this, you can’t “unnoticed” it.  The scariest moment came during the discussion of North Korea launching a test ICBM; only Donald Trump had the right answer (get the Chinese to do something about them).  It is scary when Trump sounds saner than everyone else on a foreign policy issue. 
 
We finished the night at the Kasich debate watching party.  It should have been called Kasich debate watching sausage fest; there were women there, but for every 1 woman, there appeared to be four of five men. 

At the Kasich Debate Watching Party

The men as well looked a little too earnest and a little too well groomed; they looked like they wanted to grow up and go into sales.

 

Tomorrow: Jeb, Marco & the Super Bowl.

 

Reporting from New Hampshire

Readers will know we are all about local politics here at When the Mayor Smiles.

We also subscribe to that old adage that all politics are local politics.

It follows, then, that we ought to offer comment on the big political events going on down south of the border and specifically the upcoming New Hampshire Primary.

Sadly, our knowledge of this form of local politics ranks only slightly ahead of Sarah Palin’s grasp of Russian geography.

Not to worry. We’ve got it covered.

Andrew C. Bome

Hamilton lawyer, Andrew C. Bome, leaves this Friday for New Hampshire and has committed to send back his observations on this unique and perplexing exercise in democracy.

Bome returns to the Granite State where his observations were documented and well received in 2008 for Hamilton’s Raise the Hammer.  https://www.raisethehammer.org/authors/91/andrew_c_bome